6.8.2010

Well obviously the correction is not over yet... have to follow the price. I have some market internal charts I will try to post later, but the intraday pattern has changed. Now it is sell the open once it hits the daily pivot - for example, this AM I am in TWM from the pivot price. I am keeping everything as daytrades these days until the volatility subsides.

6.3.2010

Small updates...

1. I did graduate from my MBA program, so hopefully back soon.
2. There is a good chance this correction is over and the market goes back to new highs similar to the end of 2007
3. There is a false move around 1:30ish every day for the past week or so, fading it proves very lucrative. TNA is my vehicle of choice on this.
4. Writing some software to do faster stock analysis, so I should be getting something going here again soon.

Still trying to get on my feet...

Attaching two charts, Put/Call and S&P weekly. Looks like we should get at least about another 50 points to the upside to revisit the scene of the crime and "see what happens". The world is not melting down and the OMG bear market news is old hat, it's an old story and the people guessing a top continue to get hurt. No short signals yet. The market is definitely extended, so caution is advised, but I would not short.

The circles on the P/C chart are noting some similarities to the movement of the S&P and the P/C chart.

Still trying to get to where I can post regularly... may not be for a couple months.

The $$ right now is trading individual stocks.

03.13.2010

No updates per se yet (unless you follow me on Twitter), but I'm still amazed at the amount of people expecting some massive selling to just start up on the markets. Could it happen? Possibly, but then anything could happen. Everyone seems to still be stuck in pre-March 2009.

The objective evidence shows that this is a very strong bull market, and the last recent low has had fantastic gains. On every timeframe the market is in an uptrend... any call to the other direction is just a guess. Of course, fading a trend is not a bad trade... but I see absolutely zero reason to expect some massive bear market to kick into effect. The bears are still trying to find their hides after this massive skinning.

Blast from the past...

It has been forever since I have updated this blog, but I plan to get back to it and maybe give it a facelift. School will be done this May for good (MBA will be finished, finally).

I'm back to trading and hope to mention stock ideas for each day with an explanation of my trading style.

Hope anyone who still reads this out there is doing well!

Middle of finals, but...

I suspect things will play out much like last year. A gasp up to the 200 MA in the S&P, flirting around that level through the end of the month, then the seasonality of selling will begin in June.

However, that does not mean that the lows have to be retested. There is nothing that says they must be. We may not even get 50% down from here... anything can happen. I think it is unrealistic to think that any severe selling like last fall will just set in and go simply because that was a historic event. But again, anything can happen. I am basically playing hit and run daytrades with a couple of swings every so often.

4.30.2009 Intraday Update

Bot:

TZA: $27.39
SRS: $22.53

I will stop these in the green, still countertrend and I am not comfortable being aggressively short yet.