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11 comments:
Watch for a potential confirmation candle on XLF from here on the 30-minute chart for the pattern I described last night. It needs to be a close with a lower high or a wide ranging candle that goes down significantly but comes back up.
So far SPY has put in quite a bit of volume off of its pivot point. XLF is trying to challenge yesterday's high. Watch for the 21.60 level or the 21.45 level for a potential confirmation candle on the pattern.
IWM is so far maintaining its levels.
QQQQ is struggling.
Sorry, not a lower high close on the XLF candle, but a lower low close.
Dell and the GSE's are leading the way down today. I'm not sure what that means that tech is the softest today and finance is stronger.
At any rate, I expect that a 5 day MA retest is not out of the question from here if the market cannot rally.
The butterfly pattern on SPY does not have to complete. It could be a sloppy Gartley/Bat pattern. With the QQQQ's trailing I think this market is very vulnerable.
Just to be specific, XLF needs a closing 30 minute candle under what looks like 21.05 or a candle that can go down significantly and come back up.
So far this is good trading for the shorts. Watch for the PP and support level breaks and then a flag back up as a confirmation of today's movement during the 10:00 - 11:00 hour.
So far today's action makes me 50/50 on SPY. It could go down to retest support at 126.5 and this could be a sloppy pattern. I'm leaning towards that direction now based on the time frame of the pattern.
After reviewing the XLF daily chart, it is possible to see a nice descending triangle formation if you run a line over the 23.09 high and connect the top of the candle bodies over yesterday and today's high. One definite possibility.
XLF is flagging intraday while the other indexes struggle. If XLF gives way then the rest should continue down. SPY is being held up by XLF but XLF is looking increasingly weaker.
After lunch and the situation is still volatile with light volume. Big XLF call volume again today. Is that profit taking from yesterday? Keep the price up through the lunch hours to offload the call buys from yesterday.
XLF looks like it will top within an hour from looking at the 30-min chart. Will it be a top or *the* top on this move?
I'm giving it a break through the 21.60s before I begin to think XLF really has made a sustainable move up.
Things are starting to look to me like this could be a repeat of the mid April high on XLF. It could pull back to its trendline right now around $20.50. Hard to say at this point. If one were to trade the Bat pattern I have on XLF, then I would at least take partial profits there.
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