10/10/2008 We're still breathing

Amazing, huh? Everyone is still alive and going to their jobs...

Today will be interesting. Seven days of heavy selling should exhaust the sellers at some point. In my opinion it is still way too late to sell. I'm not sure the bear market is over - in fact I think it is not - but selling here is too late. I cashed all my 401K and long term stuff in January. That's a different story though... this is not about my long term strategies (unless someone is interested).

The daily VIX gapped up. That is a positive sign for a reversal. It doesn't mean it will reverse, but bottoms in this bear cycle have started with VIX gaps. Stay tuned...

UPDATE (12:25 PM): Same song, different day. Intraday downtrend line broken. Higher low established. Now watch for a descending triangle to form and a selloff into the close around 3 PM. If it doesn't happen, then we may have seen the short-term bottom for a tradeable rally. *MAYBE*

UPDATE (3:15 PM): Hey, this looks much better. Will it hold?