12/30/2008

I hate that I have not kept this blog up to date. Instead of winging things like many blogs do, I am trying to develop a base of broader market analysis in many sectors including both space and time analysis (i.e. price and how long it might take to get to that price).

Just as a teaser, here are some potential targets. These are quite likely multi-month targets so please do not think I expect them next week or even next month. I will also be adding the corresponding charts to the blog once I get this wrapped up.

S&P 500: $545.75 (you can see the geometry used in my StockCharts list)
Oil: $16.87 (also in the SC list)
IYR: $7.44

It is not necessarily likely, but it is possible that the S&P 500 could move higher before resuming the downtrend. I would give all the way to 1000 or so as a possibility but not a probability.

Oil could maintain its support at 41.20 as it is dramatically oversold. A price like $27 could also hold.

IYR could try to move higher from here but I think time is running out. I did think $42 was a plausible target but it is taking too long now perhaps. The major Fibonacci pivot is up just under $50, and 61.8% from the pivot low is at $40. So perhaps IYR has seen its top before it sees its low in the short term. Time will tell.

At any rate, I have been in cash almost all month. I do not have the luxury to be daytrading at the moment.

Happy holidays everyone!