Check out the Yen - a nice measure of risk appetite. Weak Yen should equal better stock market. The Yen broke the 200 MA this week, and I think that marks a significant milestone in investor willingness to assume risk.
As a follow up to some previous market geometry charts, here's the update. I think we should see S&P resistance about 25 - 40 points higher:
Friday was a nice consolidation day in the S&P. This next week is a short week due to Good Friday, so light volume volatility should continue. This is the perfect storm for a run at resistance up higher. Of course, anything can happen. Momentum trends are certainly a little tired:
But that does not mean price has to be. If this rally has taught us anything, it is that price trends and momentum trends are entirely separate (but related, of course). Momentum can tire and rest while the price consolidates or creeps higher. It is a mistake to short simply because momentum has faded slightly (I have learned that lesson well lately).
Lastly, here is one final chart for your viewing pleasure. By "your" I mean "me" because I'm still not sure that I'm my only audience here :)
Good luck this week!! I will try to keep things rolling on the blog. I actually went long issues in my IRA that were not short term leveraged instruments this week. I am currently in PCU, EWZ, ICE, and a starter position for FEED. Speaking of PCU, did anyone notice copper looking more bullish? Maybe coming out of a base/ascending triangle?
And for those who say, "Meh, that's just a copper price, I don't trade futures, where is the volume, etc." well then I can show you vehicle and volume... behold, the unknown copper ETF. Check out that volume. P.S. copper is largely a gauge of global growth expectations.
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