Middle of finals, but...

I suspect things will play out much like last year. A gasp up to the 200 MA in the S&P, flirting around that level through the end of the month, then the seasonality of selling will begin in June.

However, that does not mean that the lows have to be retested. There is nothing that says they must be. We may not even get 50% down from here... anything can happen. I think it is unrealistic to think that any severe selling like last fall will just set in and go simply because that was a historic event. But again, anything can happen. I am basically playing hit and run daytrades with a couple of swings every so often.

4.30.2009 Intraday Update

Bot:

TZA: $27.39
SRS: $22.53

I will stop these in the green, still countertrend and I am not comfortable being aggressively short yet.

4.30.2009 Update

We are potentially nearing a short term bull trap. If you look at my intraday SPY chart, you can see we are set to open (at current premarket levels) at a 1.618% extension of this swing

I should just post the chart here... but I'm crazy hectic this AM with other stuff. You can see it by clicking through the link on the right.

I'm not short yet.

4.24.2009

Today's target for SPY, just a wild hunch here based on my methods... 88.95. We will see!!

UPDATE: well no short squeeze into the close. I did buy leveraged shorts near the close but sold out of them all because I'm not ready to hold leverage short overnight yet. We need more reversal signals first.

4.24.2009 - Quick hits

Intraday P/C ratio was too high at the open to support selling. The market will continue to move in the direction of stops, which means buy stops to the upside right now. No significant TICK readings and ES holding over VWAP.

XHB at the 200 MA and the QQQQ extension of this swing is $23.89 for 127.2% and roughly the 200 MA for 161.8%. I expect the latter.

No positions here. Did a quick trade and stop at breakeven on TZA this morning when I thought the relative weakness in IWM would hold.

4.22.2009

Cut RHT at the close, thought SRS was going to get a squeeze down into the close, but when it broke up I bought it.

Closed all my longs, only holding SRS.

UPDATE: Closed SRS A/H, not comfortable without a solid trend to hold the leverage overnight

4.22.2009

Bot RHT today as it exploded off its trendline, sold half already will hold the rest with a stop on the balance.

Holding EWZ with a stop at 42.50 under the intraday ascending triangle.