Middle of finals, but...

I suspect things will play out much like last year. A gasp up to the 200 MA in the S&P, flirting around that level through the end of the month, then the seasonality of selling will begin in June.

However, that does not mean that the lows have to be retested. There is nothing that says they must be. We may not even get 50% down from here... anything can happen. I think it is unrealistic to think that any severe selling like last fall will just set in and go simply because that was a historic event. But again, anything can happen. I am basically playing hit and run daytrades with a couple of swings every so often.