Thursday, April 16, 2009

4.16.2009 The Bearish Scenario

I have been bullish for a while now and eying 870 - 875 as a potential upside target for this run.  But what if that doesn't happen and the market is in a retracement?

Below is a picture of a three drives harmonic pattern.  It fits pretty well here.  Ideally the retracement for C would have been deeper, but it is what it is.  Entry is to sell at D with a stop at roughly 875.  First profit objective is the red arrow, then any of the green arrows as the second.

I do not mean to insinuate here that I have abandoned my 870 -875 target.  In fact, if you look closely at the below chart, March 27th or so was the end of a three drives pattern.  So starting a new one at the B point on this chart and going to 870ish for a final 3/D is plausible.

ThreeDrives

What would invalidate this pattern?  A move above 3 or D (same point on the chart).

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