Five and ten year treasury yields are falling as the market goes up. Things are going to roll over soon.
I am waiting for a signal on the SP 500. The 10-min MACD should break and then retest on divergence as the hourly stochastics move into overbought range. Stay tuned... the short entry is coming.
Here is what I am looking at:
Shorts:
SPY
QQQQ
Longs:
DUG
SMN
The Key Role of Emotions in Trading
1 day ago
6 comments:
No moves yet. Things don't seem right. The VIX needs to pull back to its trendline and XLE and XLB are oversold. XLF is holding its gap.
When/if any of these bounce so will SPY.
Also, is the SPY 10-min a bull flag? Maybe.
This could be like early January when the VIX pulled back to its trendline.
XLB may be showing a go long signal. So I will not be buying SMN yet. DUG is doing something similar.
Conflicting signals here. SPY looks like a complex H&S on the 10-min stalling at the right shoulder at the 5-day MA. But the volume doesn't follow the pattern that well.
There also is no negative divergence.
I am still waiting. It is a guess at this point.
Butterfly pattern on SPY, I probably should have been thinking that was possible. Updated the chart.
Still in cash unfortunately. My caution caused me to miss this move.
Actually it's not quite a butterfly pattern but I think the premise is similar.
Okay new bigger butterfly patten may be forming. 123.37 - 123.44 looks like a confluence of harmonic patterns, so maybe B will form there. C will be up at a retracement, probably around 125.5 or so (I need to check tonight how to gauge a butterly C point). That then puts an ultimate target 7.93 (let's just say 8) points down from there. That would be the point to play the long side off of.
That means that the SPY could find a bottom at 1170 or so, but I will need to measure it better later. I don't know if this is the final bottom or not, just the bottom of this VIX cycle.
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