Very weak selloff. Will this be an intermediate rally or is it a headfake for people to buy in? I am waiting a little bit but I am seeing nothing that indicates complete meltdown.
That may also mean that the bottom is not in.
How to Transform Ourselves: As People, As Traders
21 hours ago
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Seems to me that XLF is bull flagging and energy and materials may be bear flagging. SPY looks like a bear flag so far but it is running into its old downtrendline over the past couple of weeks.
Are we going to see more of the same movements that we've seen over the past few weeks? Stabilizing financials and falling commodities?
Not sure at this point; I am still waiting to see what happens. My goal is not to gamble but to trade.
Markets do bottom on bad news - usually on the worst news - so this could be an intermediate bottom. No one can know at this point.
There may be a harmonic pattern forming now on the SPY 10-min. It depends where B forms. Stay tuned... (you can see my notes on the 10-min chart).
Okay the D point may be coming up on my bearish harmonic pattern (Gartley) for the 10-min SPY:
125.24 (78.6% of XA)
124.20 (61.8% of XA)
124.88 (127% of AB)
125.75 (161.8% of AB)
Looks like maybe a very short term buy pattern is forming on the SPY 10-min (which may be instead of the sell pattern I was expecting), but unfortunately I do not have time to comment on it yet.
Okay so I bought a very small amount of SPY calls (equivalent to my risk tolerance) to play this harmonic buy pattern. I will also stop out ahead if need be.
The targets will be 123.50 or 124.54 and the fib extensions.
This is a countertrend trade and will probably only be held a matter of hours. Risk mgmt. is #1!!!
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